The White Swan

There was a time when all swans were white. Just like the sky was blue and the grass was green. This was held as a truth until, in the year 1697, a black swan was discovered in Western Australia.

Since then, black swans have become a synonym for the unexpected, the disruptive. Disruptive not only in the sense of paradigm-altering technology phenomena like Google or the iPhone, or business models like Amazon’s or Uber’s. Disruptive also in the sense of geo-politics like the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, the effects of global warming or the COVID19 pandemic. Disruptive also in the political sense such as the UK’s unexpected “Brexit” decision or the rise to power of a complete political outsider to the U.S. presidency.

The 2007 bestselling book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb subtitled “The impact of the highly improbable” is said to have prophesized the U.S. banking crash a year later. The premises for a Black Swan event, according to Taleb, are that they are outliers of extreme impact that “human nature” tries to rationalize after the fact by concocting explanations that make them explainable and predictable.

It feels like Black Swans have since conquered the world much like the North American gray squirrel decimated the reddish brown squirrel in large parts of Europe. 2020 in particular has been a year in which it was quite predictable that the unpredictable would happen. The outlier has become the new normal.

While many of these events were negative or even catastrophic in nature, I don’t think we should succumb to a doomsday perspective of life. Out of the chaos, new and good things may emerge if we are open to changing and adopting. A drive to change is not in the human nature, of course, and most will try to cling to present day business models and five year plans. But the Black Swans are here to stay, they are sharing the pond with our beloved white swans. It is safe to say that raw materials and the world’s resources will continue to remain among the White Swans in the world, although not shielded from the effects of economic change and investor behavior. Which is why I decided it was time for a new chapter of this blog series, shifting focus from Metal Megatrends to the White Swan effect precious metals, rare earth elements and technology metals.

It only took me two years, I know… reconciling my new career at BASF with my writing activities was one aspect I kept struggling with. As I experienced in an earlier media exposure, it is ever so easy to see your contents relabeled as the statement of a company or organization you are affiliated with, turning a personal statement into one of that entity. I didn’t want that to happen. In this small world, I also didn’t want to expose people that are dear to me to suspicions of having provided me with insider information even when my actual source is someone else. Appearances alone suffice to pass judgement these days.

So here I am, back and full of ideas for topics, reports and interviews to try and rationalize the irrational before it occurs, instead of after the fact. A bit of an experiment, so let’s see how it goes.

Thanks a lot to my subscribers for hanging in – my new series will start at the beginning of January.

Learnings on Osmium

Os ElephantThis is what I love most about the precious metals industry: more than 30 years in the business and the learning never stops. Back in 2017, I got myself into a pickle by promising the European Chapter of IPMI a paper on Osmium for their annual conference. At this point, I didn’t even like Osmium which had caused me several headaches back in my Degussa (the original one) days. The market is small, applications are few and to make matters worse, the metal forms a toxic substance when exposed to air, raising the question whether it is as much a precious metal as Pluto was a planet.

Things changed when I heard of a company offering osmium in a crystallized form, which isn’t just harmless in natural atmosphere, but also quite pretty to look at. My continued research after the conference, together with featuring the crystallized product in my paper sparked feedback from several industry contacts prompting me to revise some of the assumptions that I originally made.

Here is what I learned:

  • Osmium is not just co-mined with other platinum group metals (PGMs) in South Africa. Significant quantities are also co-mined with nickel in several places around the world. Increased nickel demand for battery-electric vehicles will inevitably lead to more above-ground osmium.
  • There already are substantial above-ground inventories of Osmium in unprocessed form (sometimes in conjunction with iridium as so-called “Osmiridium”) waiting for a mainstream application.
  • Combining the information received from said industry contacts it must be assumed that the annual consumption of Os worldwide today is between 800 and 1,000kg.

Positioning Os as a novel, non-synthetic diamond replacement in jewelry applications therefore remains a convincing proposition if it can be accomplished. So far, the concerns I had raised in my blog when first reporting about the idea remain unaddressed. It would appear that a more compelling marketing strategy combined with industrial scale production are required to make it happen.

In the meantime, I will keep watching, and learning.

 

 

 

Housekeeping

Dear Subscribers,

Kitco 1Please pardon the prolonged absence. As some of you already know, I made a career change earlier this year. Joining BASF takes me full circle as head of their Precious Metals Chemicals business. On top, I am in charge of battery recycling and fuel cell materials which means I was put right into the candy store of Metal Megatrends.

BASF are ok with me continuing to write and speak at conferences, so the adventure will continue, albeit with a new angle now, going from looking at the world of what’s possible to including the world of what is industrially feasible today. This should be fun!

Because of the transition, I did neither speak at the Auto-Catalyst, Battery and Fuel Cell Seminar in Atlanta, nor did I submit a “Metal Megatrends” paper for the upcoming IPMI conference. Sorry about that, but I had to get my bearings back first. I’ll be back on stage soon.

The adventure will soon continue, so please visit on occasion. Thank you!

Hungry for Gold – A new Approach to E-Waste Recycling

Gold loaded microbes formatted
microbes loaded with gold

Mint Innovation, a startup company from Auckland, New Zealand, recently reported having succeeded in recovering gold, palladium and copper from electronic waste by exposing the material to microbes with a taste for the three metals. I spoke with Ollie Crush, the company’s chief scientist, to learn more about this process.

“The overarching goal is to come up with a lower capex / opex way of recovering precious metals from electronic waste”, said Crush. “You could then have decentralized plants compared to smelters that process large scales of waste. The advantage is more certainty for the aggregator, shorter time frames on payment, more transparency and a higher return of value from what they are collecting.”

The microbes are fairly selective in what they digest. According to Crush, they collect more than 90% of the gold, palladium and copper contained in printed circuit boards (PCBs), over 60% of the total value of the feedstock. The team is still working on expanding the selection capability to extract more of the most valuable components.

Mint team formattedThe precious metals are being retrieved from the loaded microbes by ashing them, another step that is still being optimized. Crush points out that developments into process refinements, and developments into other metals, are still limited because of the small size of the business. Mint Innovation are currently working on setting up a pilot plant in Auckland that would be capable of processing about 200 metric tons of PCBs per year using a 5,000 liter tank, yielding approximately 40kg of gold. The project is partially funded but the company is still seeking capital for the US$ 4-5 million plant.

A full size plant will be able to handle 10 times the volume, which is when larger markets than New Zealand will be needed to fully utilize the technology.

 

Progress in EV Battery Recycling – Kinsbursky Brothers

DSC_8707Some of you may have seen the guest blog on Tesla’s battery recycling program I contributed to Michelle Lynch’s new “Enabled Future” website last month. There is always more to pieces like this than meets the eye as, usually, more time is spent on research than on the actual writing of a new report. Traditionally, Tesla has been quite transparent in such matters but a lot of time has passed since the conception and launch of their “Gigafctory” in Nevada. Apparently, the company is working on novel approaches to the topic that they don’t want to see released prematurely.

So I contacted Kinsbursky Brothers to check if the information provided by Tesla in 2008 is still accurate. Daniel Kinsbursky, Vice President at Kinsbursky Brothers, kindly answered a set of questions I submitted.

gm-ev1Kinsbursky has been in business since the mid 1980’s, focusing on battery recycling from the start. Their first exposure to electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling came in the late 1990’s, when the lead acid batteries from General Motor’s iconic “EV1” had to be recycled. The company subsequently expanded into Li-ion by becoming the largest shareholder in Retriev Technologies with locations in Lancaster, OH, and Trail, BC (Canada).

With respect to the company’s overall business vis-a-vis the recycling of Tesla batteries, Kinsbursky explained: “We offer our battery recycling services to a number of different brands, across multiple applications beyond just EV and hybrid vehicles. For instance, we receive a significant volume of Li-Ion batteries from consumer applications, such as cell phones, laptops/tablets, power tools, and really almost any modern device that requires mobile power. That being said, we expect the largest growth area for our recycling services to be in the automotive sector.”

As a privately held company, Kinsbursky does not share information on recycling volumes or revenues. They did, however, confirm seeing a significant increase in EV batteries year over year, and expect volumes to increase at much higher rates once more of the Li-ion powered EV and hybrid vehicles reach the end of their life cycles. Kinsbursky points out that a recent market study estimates the worldwide Li-ion battery recycling market volume to be US$ 1.78 billion (in 2017) with a projection to reach US$ 23.7 billion by 2030.

Their process for battery recycling hasn’t changed significantly from what I described in my blog. However, Kinsbursky points out that “our goal is to be the first company to commercialize a battery-to-battery recycling process, whereby materials like lithium and cobalt recovered from a used battery can be reutilized in a new battery without any additional intermediary steps.”

With respect to the amount of material sent to landfill (25% according to Tesla’s 2008 blog), the good news is that this has been reduced to below 10%. Kinsbursky explained: “The amount of materials sent to the landfill from our process is largely dependent on the feedstock. Our process is capable of recovering all battery metals, including cobalt, nickel and lithium. Nevertheless, many battery packs utilize different grades of plastic and separator materials, which can consist of mixed quality grades of little recycling value in this commingled form. This is typically less than 10% of the battery mass. … It should also be noted that 10-15% of the battery mass is an electrolyte solvent which is digested within our process.”

Asked to comment on the pros and cons of their recycling method compared to ultra-high temperature incineration, Kinsbursky responded: “There are two common methodologies for the recycling and management of lithium ion batteries. hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical. Umicore’s process utilizes pyrometallurgical. Each type of system has its own benefits and deficiencies. As you stated, the UHT process would be more energy demanding than a hydrometallurgical process, and the hydrometallurgical system would be more forgiving in the type of material that can be processed.

Our current physical/mechanical process removes any electrical hazards and shreds and separates the batteries into usable commodity feeds. We are essentially a pre-processor for pyrometallurgical downstream processors. The advantage of our process is that it separates the metals into more concentrated feeds for the pyrometallurgical processes, thereby increasing efficiency and energy usage. Our long-term goal of producing battery materials will utilize additional hydrometallurgical processes on the back-end of our existing processes. We think over-all this will provide a lower energy pathway to closing the loop on lithium ion battery recycling when compared to the pyrometallurgical route.”

In conclusion, a lot of progress has been made, and new developments (David Kinsbusrsky did not want to comment on these) are on the horizon. Closed loops, or nearly closed recycling loops, seem possible provided that manufacturers and recyclers continue working together towards this goal.

Reuters Interview / Q&A on the impact of Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles on Platinum

Reuters BannerFuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) vs. battery electric vehicles (BEV) – the precious metals industry is rightfully concerned about this battle. While FCEVs will utilize platinum in their fuel cells, BEVs need none, and each electric vehicle sold of either kind means that one less standard emission control catalyst has been sold. Reason for Reuters to inquire about the scale of the potential effects.

I sometimes feel like a doomsday prophet when I’m just tallying up statements and facts from people and governments in charge, that inevitably lead to one conclusion: electrification is near, and there is no sufficient hydrogen supply infrastructure to counter the expansion of electric charging.

Better to deal with the issue now than staring into an abyss a decade down the road. Precious metals, combined with rare earth elements and other “strategic” metals, are indispensable in making a sustainable planet a reality. So let’s focus on a vision for this world in 2040, and start working towards it.

To read a transcript of the Q&A session please click here.

Update: I just discovered the direct link to Reuter’s summary: click here to read.

Metallic Hydrogen – a new Era in Fuel Storage?

Since the Hindenburg disaster, hydrogen has been known more for its risks than its uses as a fuel component. In its liquid form it has of course been used as rocket fuel, and more recently it has made an entrance as a potential alternative to lithium-ion batteries in cars. Not only is lithium-ion not free from hazards itself, the batteries also add more weight and volume to a device than a tank full of H2. Setting up a supply infrastructure remains an issue, and storage risks make people uncomfortable.

Diamond Anvil

What if hydrogen could be produced in its metallic form? A metal, easy and safe to transport and store? What if this metal could be readily re-converted to its liquid state as needed to be used in fuel cells? A vision of a distant future, perhaps, but professor Isaac Silvera of Harvard University claims to have just taken the first step, the creation of metallic hydrogen. I had a very interesting conversation with him, the product of which was just published on Kitco News. Here is the link: http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2017-03-21/Metallic-Hydrogen-a-New-Area-in-Hydrogen-Storage.html

 

Cobalt – from secret ingredient to superstar

Cobalt started coming into focus when the industry became aware of its crucial importance to lithium-ion technology. Since then, several Tech Metal Insider articles on Kitco News have dealt with the subject:

Cobalt – the secret ingredient in lithium ion batteries: https://bodoalbrecht.com/2015/10/02/cobalt-the-secret-ingredient-in-lithium-ion-batteries/

BYD (Build your Dreams) – cobalt vs iron oxide technology: https://bodoalbrecht.com/2016/04/28/byd-disrupting-the-markets-for-lithium-and-cobalt/

Ethical concerns on cobalt mining raised by Amnesty International: https://bodoalbrecht.com/2016/10/10/cobalt-prices-on-the-rise-amidst-ethical-concerns/

mitch-smithThe latter topic in particular raised the question of ethical alternatives for cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country that just declared it had to postpone democratic elections for lack of funds. One company promising such an alternative is Global Energy Metals of Vancouver, Canada. Mitchell Smith, president and CEO of GEM who is also a very active supporter of alternative energy in social media, told me more about the company and its plans. Click here to read the interview on Kitco News.

 

All that glitters – is it Gold?

All that glitters – is it Gold?

goldbarren140923-lr_job_0030_1Ever since the discovery of precious metals as a means of payment, wealth storage and vanity, there have been forgers trying to replace the valuable metals with lesser ones to make a higher profit. Early attempts may seem crude from today’s perspective but they worked for quite a long time, cheating gullible buyers out of their money. In today’s world where gold is bought and sold online and by different demographics than in the early days, forgers have stepped up their game to deceive even professional buyers. Buying from, and selling to, trustworthy partners has therefore become an increasingly important step towards protecting one’s assets. Time to explain in detail what the issues are, how reputable professionals make sure an item is authentic, and how you as an individual can protect yourself.

Let us first separate the different groups of gold you may encounter: security-packaged investment products, unpackaged investment products and jewelry. “Investment” items, generally speaking, are bars and standard coins, which is what we will focus on today. Gold bars can range from 1 gram (g) to 400 troy ounces, the equivalent of about 12,400 grams. The most common size to-date, despite the world’s leap into the metric system, is one troy ounce, the equivalent of 31.1035 grams. To this day, the troy ounce is how gold is traded and that’s the price you see published. It also explains the existence of the 400 troy ounce bar which is the unit of trade at the world’s market places. As a private investor, you are likely to be dealing with unit sizes between one ounce and one kilogram (~ 32 ounces).

The “standard coin” market generally describes generic gold coins issued by governmental or government authorized mints such as the American “Golden Eagle”, the South African “Krugerrand”, the Canadian “Maple Leaf” or the Austrian “Vienna Philharmonics”, just to name a few. The caveat of some of these is that they are not, in fact, pure gold throwing a wrench in the most obvious testing method for gold: mass and water displacement.

Both the Golden Eagle and the Krugerrand, each in their own way, contain several percent of other metals giving them a unique appearance, and making them a little bigger. To be precise, both coins are 22 karat (91.67%) gold. The Maple Leaf and the Vienna Philharmonics are 24 karat (99.99%) gold, usually expressed as parts of thousand on the coin (meaning these coins will say 999.9 to state their purity).

As a Greek named Archimedes once discovered, it is possible to define the amount of water displaced by a specific material and, according to legend, this became the first method of verifying that what appears to be gold is in fact gold. The method is somewhat impractical and inaccurate, of course, when applied in day-to-day operation, and it was soon discovered that it could be duped by adding tungsten, a metal of almost the same molecular weight and water displacement as gold, to an item.

KONICA MINOLTA DIGITAL CAMERA

Other methods were called for, and this time chemistry gave the answer: Aqua Regia. “Royal Water”, a mixture of nitric and hydrochloric acid, selectively dissolves gold (and platinum) but pretty much nothing else. Invented in the 14th century, it soon became a trusted method for verifying the presence of gold. Its application requires the tester to scratch off a tiny amount of metal (hence the name “scratch test”) and then dissolve it by applying Aqua Regia with a small pipette or a brush. The method is still in use today despite its apparent downside of damaging the object to be tested, and consuming an – albeit small – amount of the metal.

fake-pamp-gold-barThere are other pitfalls, too: the “scratch test” will only test the surface of an item, leaving the tester in the dark regarding its inside. This, in fact, is one of the most common testing issues to-date: tungsten or other metals hidden inside the item, or hollow jewelry items filled with sand or other materials.

To counter this issue, modern testing methods for “standard” items have much evolved, starting with tamper proof packaging of many such coins or bars. Modern packaging may look like just a plastic and cardboard card but is in fact a masterpiece of combined security features that help uniquely identify the object electronically, and prevent it from being exchanged by anything else without destroying the packaging in the process.

img_20170102_125040The picture shows a specimen card for illustration purposes. Besides the QR code, micro-engravings and multiple layers of plastic that turn opaque when tampered with are just some of the features of modern packaging. But even when packaged, professional gold buyers will analyze the precious metal object through the transparent layer by x-ray fluorescence, ultrasonic or other methods to be sure of its authenticity.

The object inside may itself carry a serial number, QR code, hologram or DNA marking allowing for it to be cross-referenced against a manufacturer’s database.

Coins or bars that are unpackaged will undergo even greater scrutiny. In addition to the above tests, buyers will often check for dimensional accuracy (applying Archimedes’ principles) or insist on liquefying the item by melting it, which will mix (“homogenize”) the metal, allowing for an accurate assay. This, of course, only makes sense for higher value purchases.

It is easy to see how testing for dimensional accuracy and other parameters works better on pure metals than alloys. This should, however, not be a deterrent to buy a Krugerrand for its unique appearance; as mentioned before, most professional buyers can handle it.

delta%20scrap%20copperNowadays, x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzers are very commonplace around the world for quick and efficient precious metals analysis. Models vary from handheld (shown) to table top units depending on application and regulations on x-ray radiation. XRF is, however, very limited in the area (size and depth) it analyzes. Prudent operators will always take sets of measurements, and calculate an average.

new%20homepage%20pmv%20631kbNewer methods combine weight with ultrasonic or other parameters. They are generally very accurate but work only on defined items, meaning standard coins or bars. They are favored by depositories and specialized buyers but impractical for pawn brokers who are also dealing with jewelry and other unidentifiable items.

All of these devices are quite expensive, and they require some level of experience to provide reliable results. Unfortunately, there is no testing method of equal reliability for the occasional home user.

My advice? Visit a reputable gold buyer, preferably one who has been in business for some time, and offer what you want analyzed for sale. Most such buyers will appraise the item for you without obligation.

Which brings us to jewelry. Many of us have it, want it or not, as items of perceived value handed down from generation to generation. The important distinction here is rarity and condition. If an item isn’t of exceptional beauty and condition, or has no certifiable history giving it special value, then it is often worth only its metal value.

Evaluating these items is especially hard, and to do it reliably buyers will often have to scratch it, or cut it open to evaluate the core material. Be sure you have lost all attachment to such items prior to offering them for sale.

Also, you should know the following aspects of dealing with old jewelry:

  • Stones, even diamonds, are usually scratched and not worth as much as a new one. Some buyers will send them to be refurbished or colorized but that’s an additional effort for which they will typically not issue a credit. You can always ask to keep your stones if you prefer.
  • Labels can be deceiving. Many items will carry a stamp identifying the gold content on their clasp. Clasps do break, however, and because they are inexpensive, jewelers will frequently not match up a new clasp with the old one. This can go both ways, the clasp on the item may state an either higher or lower gold content. It is not a suitable indicator for an object’s gold content, and value.
  • Gold buyers live to make a margin. It will take them days, sometimes weeks, to recover the money they just paid a customer. They also have to include a margin of error because, as you have learned by now, this is not an accurate process. Plus, they have to amortize all the fancy equipment and, oh yes, make a profit. Don’t expect the result to be the calculated gold contents times the current price of gold from your phone app.
  • On the other hand, due diligence is always advisable when selling precious metals. Gather as much information (testimonials from friends and family, from the internet….) as possible before selling jewelry to a store or buyer. And do shop around, both sides need to make an educated decision here.

Selling jewelry is a difficult area with sellers frequently having high hopes and buyers hedging their odds against the remaining uncertainty. From a seller’s perspective, it, therefore, pays to shop around and get multiple offers for comparison.

With this in mind, you will be able to make more educated and confident decisions on what to buy, who to buy it from, and whom to sell to. Be sure that, if it glitters, it is in fact gold.

Image credits: OEGUSSA, Olympus, Sigma Metalytics, Midland Refining, public domain and own.

 

 

Hydrogen is here – my interview with Trevor Milton of Nikola Motors

Nikola – Mr. Tesla’s first name, chosen not by chance, I suppose, as the name for the “other” electric car company completely focused on heavy duty trucks. Interestingly, although the canikola_one_10-87a4458ec7068a27e4fb41f4f9f91d4f9137d5ce938b9b917021f02663db242frs are – strictly speaking – battery powered, Trevor Milton and his team chose to add a hydrogen fuel cell for clean charging, and range extension.

And it doesn’t stop there – Nikola Motors wants the hydrogen to be produced in sustainable ways, too, and is therefore building a network of solar farms across the country to do so.

Click here to read my interview with Trevor Milton, CEO of Nikola Motors, on Kitco News.