From a garage in China to the rainforests in Brazil, fire is the ultimate disruptor. It burns up balance sheets, it devours the source of oxygen supply of our planet and – along with it – plans for the future that anyone may have ever made.
I continue to be convinced that the need for sustainability and electrification will lead to a much sharper and shorter upward trajectory than projected by a lot of people studying the “future of electrification”. Metal Megatrends, like all megatrends, are no longer linear or even exponential. When the first ICE powered cars roamed the Earth, drivers bought their gasoline in pharmacies. What is the critical reduction in fuel consumption that will cause petrol stations as a business model to collapse again? How long before Starbucks rolls out free EV charging with every cup of coffee? Will 7Eleven and QuickCheck be the new Chevron or Shell? How long before hydrogen is accepted as a mainstream technology?
How long before market analysts will look at their models and question the premises of linear growth projected for several decades during which fires will lick at their spreadsheets? The rock, the only constant in this game, becomes the acceptance of the non-linear, the improbable, the unfathomable. Let’s learn to deal with it.