Precious Metals and Mobility Symposium

Mark your Calendars:

An IPMI Symposium on the future role of Platinum Group Metals in the Automotive Industry

When: 16-18 April, 2018

Where: The Heldrich Hotel and Conference Center, New Brunswick / NJ – USA

Details and registration info will be available shortly on the IPMI’s website.

Reuters Interview / Q&A on the impact of Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles on Platinum

Reuters BannerFuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) vs. battery electric vehicles (BEV) – the precious metals industry is rightfully concerned about this battle. While FCEVs will utilize platinum in their fuel cells, BEVs need none, and each electric vehicle sold of either kind means that one less standard emission control catalyst has been sold. Reason for Reuters to inquire about the scale of the potential effects.

I sometimes feel like a doomsday prophet when I’m just tallying up statements and facts from people and governments in charge, that inevitably lead to one conclusion: electrification is near, and there is no sufficient hydrogen supply infrastructure to counter the expansion of electric charging.

Better to deal with the issue now than staring into an abyss a decade down the road. Precious metals, combined with rare earth elements and other “strategic” metals, are indispensable in making a sustainable planet a reality. So let’s focus on a vision for this world in 2040, and start working towards it.

To read a transcript of the Q&A session please click here.

Update: I just discovered the direct link to Reuter’s summary: click here to read.

Cobalt – from secret ingredient to superstar

Cobalt started coming into focus when the industry became aware of its crucial importance to lithium-ion technology. Since then, several Tech Metal Insider articles on Kitco News have dealt with the subject:

Cobalt – the secret ingredient in lithium ion batteries: https://bodoalbrecht.com/2015/10/02/cobalt-the-secret-ingredient-in-lithium-ion-batteries/

BYD (Build your Dreams) – cobalt vs iron oxide technology: https://bodoalbrecht.com/2016/04/28/byd-disrupting-the-markets-for-lithium-and-cobalt/

Ethical concerns on cobalt mining raised by Amnesty International: https://bodoalbrecht.com/2016/10/10/cobalt-prices-on-the-rise-amidst-ethical-concerns/

mitch-smithThe latter topic in particular raised the question of ethical alternatives for cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country that just declared it had to postpone democratic elections for lack of funds. One company promising such an alternative is Global Energy Metals of Vancouver, Canada. Mitchell Smith, president and CEO of GEM who is also a very active supporter of alternative energy in social media, told me more about the company and its plans. Click here to read the interview on Kitco News.

 

Hydrogen is here – my interview with Trevor Milton of Nikola Motors

Nikola – Mr. Tesla’s first name, chosen not by chance, I suppose, as the name for the “other” electric car company completely focused on heavy duty trucks. Interestingly, although the canikola_one_10-87a4458ec7068a27e4fb41f4f9f91d4f9137d5ce938b9b917021f02663db242frs are – strictly speaking – battery powered, Trevor Milton and his team chose to add a hydrogen fuel cell for clean charging, and range extension.

And it doesn’t stop there – Nikola Motors wants the hydrogen to be produced in sustainable ways, too, and is therefore building a network of solar farms across the country to do so.

Click here to read my interview with Trevor Milton, CEO of Nikola Motors, on Kitco News.

Platinum Group Metals: staring down a cliff?

TecDay Road to the Future – Drive TrainOne topic of my annual “Metal Megatrends” paper at the recent IPMI conference in Phoenix was sustainable mobility, and its impacts on metal consumption. In fact, if you read the story of how my column for Kitco News started four years ago (see the “Welcome” page of this blog), we have now reached a point where we can answer the question: “What if all cars in the world were electric?”.

The answer is now online on Kitco News (click here to read).

While my paper (available through the IPMI in a little while) was also critical regarding Tesla executives’ role in trash talking hydrogen it should also be disclosed that I am on the long list of people having pre-ordered a Model 3, and I share the admiration of Elon Musk by those who say he is shaping the world by his visions, perhaps in more significant ways than Steve Jobs ever has.

As a result of adding up all the facts in front of us the only logical conclusion is that the era of the internal combustion engine is coming to an end. There will be a long tail, of course, with cars being passed on from some regions of the world to others, and with heavy duty engines as an unresolved issue. What about collector’s cars? Will a “boutique” style infrastructure emerge where we buy fuel in new ways, or is it back to the pharmacy like in the early days of the automobile?

Last but certainly not least: what will happen to pgm markets in the meantime? Assuming that the fuel cell will eventually gain traction, the loss of platinum on emission control catalysts might be offset by the growth of the FCEV. Palladium, which is already used in some fuel cells, might once again play a role as a substitute. Only for rhodium the direction is unclear in this environment.

That said, the unique properties of precious metals have always made them desirable, if not irreplaceable, in technology applications. I am optimistic that new uses will emerge as technologies advance further.

BYD -disrupting the markets for lithium and cobalt

A few weeks ago, during the hype of hundreds of thousands of Tesla Model 3 pre-orders, I saw a report on BYD (“Build Your Dream”), a Chinese car and battery manufacturer. While Tesla are scrambling to determine how they will meet the large demand they just created, BYD is already producing very large amounts of battery-electric vehicles today. I was drawn to their YouTube video (link below, the Spanish title seems to be an error on their part) in which BYD are demonstrating the safety of their lithium iron phosphate batteries.

These batteries are interesting because they are likely to do two things to metal markets:

  1. They will remove the issue of a cobalt shortage which is imminent – standard Li-ion batteries contain about 10% of cobalt, that’s 50kg per Tesla. Arithmetically, there just isn’t enough cobalt available in the world to prevent a market crash. See my earlier report on the topic here, and an excellent analysis by John Petersen titled “EV batteries and the cobalt cliff” here.
  2. The effect on lithium will be inverse: the metal, unchained from cobalt, can now be used more widespread than previously possible.

BYD-E6_3Intrigued by this scenario, I requested an interview with BYD which was promptly granted. I wish other companies were this forthcoming when it comes to asking about their technology. The resulting article was just published on Kitco News today, and it can be viewed here. Hope you will find it interesting.

Tesla Model 3: the car that is

You may feel about Tesla in whichever way you like, but there is no denying that today is the day people will remember as the day when the paradigms of selling cars changed forever. Thousands of people are waiting in line to pay down $1,000 on a car they have never seen, a car that may or may not be shipped in 2017, a car that – according to its creator – doesn’t even exist in its final design yet.

IMG_20160331_095433The picture shows people waiting at a factory owned store in a shopping mall (Short Hills Mall in New Jersey, USA). The line, which security estimated to be at least 200 people, winds throughout the mall and out the door. The line in the other picture shows people waiting for the new iPhone, also released today in what can only be called a marketing blunder. IMG_20160331_095110It is not the Tesla Model 3 other EV manufacturers have to worry about, it’s the way in which Elon Musk and the Tesla brand excite the masses. The Model 3 presale takes thousands of committed EV buyers off the market for at least 4-5 years (1.5 years of waiting time plus a 3 year lease). Whichever product or marketing strategy other brands may come up with, from hereon the market has been captured by Tesla for a very long time. A VERY smart move.